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Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.
相似文献In tropical areas, pioneer occupation fronts steer the rapid expansion of deforestation, contributing to carbon emissions. Up-to-date carbon emission estimates covering the long-term development of such frontiers depend on the availability of high spatial–temporal resolution data. In this paper, we provide a detailed assessment of carbon losses from deforestation and potential forest degradation from fragmentation for one expanding frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. We focused on one of the Amazonia’s hot-spots of forest loss, the BR-163 highway that connects the high productivity agricultural landscapes in Mato Grosso with the exporting harbors of the Amazon. We used multi-decadal (1984–2012) Landsat-based time series on forested and non-forested area in combination with a carbon book-keeping model. We show a 36% reduction in 1984s biomass carbon stocks, which led to the emission of 611.5 TgCO2 between 1985 and 1998 (43.6 TgCO2 year−1) and 959.8 TgCO2 over 1999–2012 (68.5 TgCO2 year−1). Overall, fragmentation-related carbon losses represented 1.88% of total emissions by 2012, with an increasing relevance since 2004. We compared the Brazilian Space Agency deforestation assessment (PRODES) with our data and found that small deforestation polygons not captured by PRODES had increasing importance on estimated deforestation carbon losses since 2000. The comparative analysis improved the understanding of data-source-related uncertainties on carbon estimates and indicated disagreement areas between datasets that could be subject of future research. Furthermore, spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived from this study are important for setting regional baselines for REDD+ or similar payment for ecosystem services frameworks.
相似文献Implications: In the poultry house, toxic gas emissions can adversely affect the health, performance, and welfare of both animals and human operators. The persistence of these toxic pollutants from poultry houses may be due to the ability of suspended particulate matter (SPM) to serve as carriers for these compounds (inorganic ions). Our study showed that polyatomic ions in suspended particulate matter were found to increase with successive flocks and were highly concentrated in the larger size SPM. Understanding the effect of management practices on poultry air emissions will lead to innovative best management practices to safeguard the health and welfare of the animals as well as those of the poultry operators, along with reducing the impact of potential air pollution on the environment. 相似文献